I once wrote a newspaper column on projecting ticket sales for upcoming touring shows. After discussing the recent performance of similar events at the same venue, and the same event at similar venues, along with applying variables for day of the week and time of the year, etc., I concluded with this couplet:
- You mean you guess?
- Well, yeah.
Budgeting is always guessing. All those odd numbers, many to the second decimal, many only because of the successive application of annual percentage adjustments, provide THE ILLUSION OF PRECISION which often warps the entire exercise.
Thanks Jim! Love this example! I agree that precision isn't the goal (nor is it possible). Rather, the goal is intention, attention, and (eventually) wisdom. Happy New Year!
Love this, Andrew!
I once wrote a newspaper column on projecting ticket sales for upcoming touring shows. After discussing the recent performance of similar events at the same venue, and the same event at similar venues, along with applying variables for day of the week and time of the year, etc., I concluded with this couplet:
- You mean you guess?
- Well, yeah.
Budgeting is always guessing. All those odd numbers, many to the second decimal, many only because of the successive application of annual percentage adjustments, provide THE ILLUSION OF PRECISION which often warps the entire exercise.
Thanks Jim! Love this example! I agree that precision isn't the goal (nor is it possible). Rather, the goal is intention, attention, and (eventually) wisdom. Happy New Year!